Canadian Dollar, CAD, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD Talking Points:
- USD/CAD continues to build in a bullish manner short-term, but a major spot of resistance lies ahead.
- CAD/JPY has pulled back from the six-year-highs set last month, and currently shows a bull flag formation with a big spot of support nearing.
- EUR/CAD may have some bullish breakout potential as bulls have been persistently pushing to resistance at 1.4435.
- The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more about price action or chart patterns, check out our DailyFX Education section.
After a really strong month of October, the Canadian Dollar has taken a break so far in November, showing weakness against all of the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen and even the Euro.
In USD/CAD, the pair has pulled back to test resistance at the 50% marker of the June-August bullish move. This showed up after October trade highlighted a falling wedge formation building in the middle of the month as sellers were slowing their approach around the 1.2300 level. As of this writing, there is some short term bullish continuation potential given the hold of higher-low support around prior resistance, but the next 150 pips higher in USD/CAD sees a number of resistance levels coming into play starting with the 1.2500 psychological level.
USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview
CAD/JPY was a high-flyer in early Q4 trade as there was a potent macro combo pushing both sides of the pair. On the CAD front, higher oil prices were helping to keep the currency strong and for the Yen, higher rates were spelling for more Yen-weakness, which led to a strong topside push up to a fresh six-year-high.
But, after topping on October 21st, the pair has continued to pullback and this morning marks a fresh multi-week low in the pair. There is a big support level a little lower, around the 90 handle which is confluent with a couple of Fibonacci retracements around 90.25.
For those looking for CAD-strength, this may be a more attractive venue than USD and there’s a bull flag formation brewing on the below Daily chart.
CAD/JPY Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; CADJPY on Tradingview
I highlighted this pair and this setup in late-October as EUR/CAD had finally pulled back to find a bit of resistance around 1.4435. Two weeks later, price action is still testing resistance, and while this doesn’t preclude the potential for bearish continuation, it does highlight a persistence from bulls that can allow for this resistance to be implemented for topside breakout approaches.
To be sure, this wouldn’t be a long-term type of setup as the fundamental backdrop is seemingly at odds with bullish EUR/CAD. But, the technical setup is what it is, and sellers have had ample opportunity to push this lower over the past couple of weeks and haven’t. This can keep the door open for short-term bearish CAD plays.
EUR/CAD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURCAD on Tradingview
— Written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX