CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK:
- Crude oil prices idle as rally struggles to extend past four-month highs
- Supply squeeze worries counterbalanced by broadly risk-off backdrop
- US PCE inflation and ISM manufacturing survey in the spotlight ahead
Crude oil prices oscillated sharply but ultimately failed to find a lasting directional lead Thursday amid conflicting influences. Lingering supply shortage fears – an upside influence – clashed with a generally risk-off backdrop felt broadly across the range of cyclically-minded assets.
Looking ahead, August’s US PCE inflation data as well as September’s ISM manufacturing survey are in focus on the data front. The Fed’s favored price-growth gauge is expected to put core inflation at 3.5 percent, down a hair from the 30-year high at 3.6 percent recorded in the prior month.
Meanwhile, the headline ISM figure is seen inching down from 59.9 to 59.6, suggesting that growth may be stabilizing after a pullback in the second quarter. In all, such data seems unlikely to alter traders’ disposition one way or another, barring a dramatic surprise. That might make for into another choppy but directionless day.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices are idling at three-year resistance just below the $77/bbl figure. A break higher may expose the closely-eyed $80/bbl threshold. A daily close below 72.17 looks necessary for sellers to turn the tide. Support levels at 69.36 and 66.35 follow thereafter..
Crude oil price chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TRADING RESOURCES
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC for DailyFX
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